Ballon d'Or, NBA MVP: How to Approach Player Awards Betting

Published on 05/25/2025 19:12:56

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Sports betting is unpredictable by its very nature. We all know that, and it’s part of the attraction of it when you know that a favorite can be beaten, shocks can happen when they seem impossible, and things don’t always go to plan. Yet, one element of sports that can be at least somewhat predictable is player awards, and, of course, there is a wide range of betting markets to support that. 

Of course, there is always an element of risk. To give you an example, Boston Celtics franchise star Jayson Tatum was a prominent pick in the 2025 NBA Finals MVP betting for much of the Playoffs, but the fact that he sustained a serious injury in the Conference Semifinals means that he won’t be playing, even should the Celtics get there. Tatum wasn’t the favorite – Shai Gilgeous-Alexander was and still is – but it’s an example of how a market like MVP betting can change instantly. 

Markets can be more predictable

Yet, MVP markets, especially across a season, are more predictable than the outcomes of games. If, for instance, you look back at the recent history of the NBA regular season MVP, you can perhaps pick out a few times when a shock winner was announced: Joel Embiid was arguably one of those in 2022 (many thought that Nikola Jokic would get three in a row), and we know that Russell Westbrook’s win in 2017 divided opinion, with many believing it should have gone to James Harden. Still, it’s mostly not a surprise. 

There’s an interesting market this year for the Ballon d’Or in soccer, as there are several players with a genuine shout. Ousmane Dembele is the market leader, but you have the likes of Lamine Yamal, Raphina, Mohamed Salah, and Lautaro Martinez also in the running. A lot depends on narrative, and that’s where it can get interesting for bettors. 

To explain, you have Dembele’s Paris Saint-Germain taking on Martinez’s Inter Milan in the 2025 Champions League Final this year, and if a star turn is delivered by one of those players to give the biggest trophy in club soccer for his team, you can be sure the odds will tumble. Martinez – available at +1000 (10/1) – is perhaps the value pick here, as he has an underrated season, and the Champions League Final is the perfect place to make people finally notice him. 

Narratives are important 

All of the above is speculative, of course. Yet, it provides an insight into how you should approach player awards betting. Sometimes, there is momentum behind a candidate that goes beyond their performance. Lionel Messi in 2023, for example, with all due respect to the most outstanding player in history, his Ballon d’Or award was largely down to finally delivering the World Cup to Argentina the year before. At specific points, you would have found good value in the odds for backing Messi based on the World Cup's narrative.’

Nevertheless, there are other ways to think about award betting value. For example, in Super Bowls, there is a tactic – although it’s not foolproof – of backing the quarterback of the team you believe will win to get the Super Bowl MVP award. The logic is sound for a couple of reasons. We know that history tells us that the QB will likely get the award – five of the last six MVPs have played that position. Secondly, and most importantly, the odds of picking the MVP over a team winning will be a lot higher. At Super Bowl LIX, for instance, Jalen Hurts was priced at +300 to win MVP, whereas the Eagles were just over even money. 

All this is a way of saying that bettors must look at awards betting from different perspectives. First, you must remember there are cases like Tatum’s where injury or other unforeseen circumstances can scupper your bet. Secondly, the awards can be narrative-driven rather than looking at pure performance, and that can help you spot value in the markets. Finally, you can look beyond fundamental markets to play the percentages. Consider that, for example, if you fancy OKC for the 2025 NBA Championship, perhaps backing SGA for Finals MVP will offer more value. 

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